Rally Latvia Predictions: Rally1

July 15, 2024Joe Moore
RallyWRC

The 2024 World Rally Championship season continues this weekend with round eight Tet Rally Latvia. Here are some predictions for the Rally1 class. 

Tänak Wins

Rally Latvia is set up to be an epic three-way battle between Kalle Rovanperä, Sebastien Ogier and Ott Tänak. All three drivers are blisteringly quick when it comes down to it. Personally, I have Tänak taking home the win. Why? Simply put Tänak is probably going to be a man on a mission this weekend. As his Rally Poland ended way early due to a deer. Then a roll in the ERC running of his home event Rally Estonia the week after. Tänak is already somebody who wants to win at every event. Add that to him falling out of the running for the championship and the previously mentioned incident and it’s a storm waiting to happen. 

Sesks Finishes Top 5 

This may be a bit far-fetched. However, out of all the rally1 drivers, Sesks has the most experience on these roads. As it’s his home event. Sure he still has a lack of time in the car, especially with the hybrid unit. However, after his showing in Poland, I’ve learned to expect the unexpected out of Sesks. It won’t be an easy feat for the Latvian to pull off, as he’ll have to fend off one or more of Kalle Rovanperä, Sebastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Ott Tänak, Thierry Neuville, Esapekka Lappi and Adrien Fourmuax. 

Neuville Falls Out Of The Championship Lead

Thierry Neuville has led the championship since the start of the season. After a win at the opening round in Monte-Carlo. However, Neuville sits in a position where he could lose the championship lead this weekend. As Elfyn Evans sits just 15 points behind the Belgian. Sure that sounds like a lot. But all it takes is for Neuville to have an issue at any point in the weekend and those points will bleed away. Of course, you never hope to see a driver run into issues. However, it’s a part of rallying that can happen to anybody. 

Evans Shows Up

Elfyn Evans hasn’t had the greatest first half of the season. As the Welshman is without a win to this point and arguably wouldn’t be the number one championship contender for Toyota if Ogier didn’t miss out on Rally Poland. Evans has to hope Rally Latvia goes way better than any other event this season. As he desperately needs the points if he wants to remain a threat for the championship heading into the back half of the season. He can’t rely on another lucky Rally Finland to kick-start his season. 

The 2024 World Rally Championship season continues this weekend with round eight Tet Rally Latvia. Find out all you need to know below.

Championship Rundown 

Thierry Neuville still holds the championship lead, something he has held since Monte Carlo. However, this weekend Neuville is under pressure more than ever as Elfyn Evans sits just 15 points behind. Ott Tänak sits 21 points behind Neuville and 6 behind Evans. Sebastien Ogier is fourth in the championship, 23 points behind Tänak. Fellow Frenchman Adrien Fourmuax rounds out the top five in the championship, sitting just a single point behind Ogier.

Team Rundowns

Toyota Gazoo Racing 

Toyota will fleet a four-car lineup for Rally Latvia this weekend. With Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä and Sebastien Ogier being nominated to score manufacturers’ points. While Takamoto Katsuta is not. Rovanperä will be looking for his third win of the season. While Ogier will look to bounce back after missing Rally Poland due to an accident before the event. Elfyn Evans will look to kickstart his disappointing season in Latvia. Overall Toyota is setting itself up to give Hyundai a run for its money. 

Hyundai Shell Mobis 

Hyundai will run the standard three-car lineup. Featuring Thierry Neuville and Ott Tänak alongside Esapekka Lappi. Neuville will be looking to hold onto the championship lead. While also making up for a rather disappointing showing in Poland last time out. While Tänak will be looking to just do any bit of the event at this point. As a deer ended his event early in Poland. Then in his home event of Rally Estonia in the ERC, he rolled his i20 completely destroying the car. Lappi will contest just his third event this season. The Finnish driver already has one win under his belt this season, that being way back in Sweden. 

M-Sport Ford

M-Sport will run a three-car lineup for the second consecutive event. As Adrien Fourmaux and Grégoire Munster will once again be joined by Martins Sesks. Who this time around will be driving a full-flight Rally1 car. Sesks made the most of their debut last time out in Poland. Finishing top five on a handful of stages. Fourmaux will likely be looking to finish on the podium once again this weekend. As he finished third in Poland earlier this month. Munster will continue the usual of learning the event and the car. Not much to expect there. 

Martins Sesks made a splash in his Rally1 debut earlier this month. Find out more about the Latvian’s debut below.

A Large Jump 

Martins Sesks has had good results in the European Rally Championship, including winning Rally Poland last season. Which earned him a two-event drive in a Rally1 car this season. Sesks drove Rally Poland in a hybrid-less Rally1 car. He will drive a Rally1 car with a hybrid later this week in his home event of Rally Latvia. Nobody expected much out of Sesks in Poland. As he not only had a power disadvantage but he also had a huge lack of time in the car. Nevertheless, Sesks set out to prove he belongs. As he set the second fastest time on the first full stage of the event. He also sat in the top five nearly all weekend long. Battling with Thierry Neuville who was the reigning Rally Poland winner in a WRC car. Most people were expecting Sesks to be ahead of Grégoire Munster, but I don’t think anybody thought he’d be battling the championship leader at points during the weekend. 

What To Expect In Latvia 

Well, Martins Sesks blew everyone’s socks off in Poland. Which makes me think he’ll be a front-runner once again at his home event. As he has the most experience at the event out of any Rally1 driver, plus he won’t have a power disadvantage this time around. Overall I wouldn’t be surprised if Sesks not only took stage wins but also finished the event in the top five if nothing goes wrong over the course of the event. He will have to try and fend off some much more experienced drivers, however. As guys like Kalle Rovanperä, Sebastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Thierry Neuville, Ott Tänak, Esapekka Lappi and Adrien Fourmaux have all shown previously they can be fast when it comes down to it. They also all have much more experience behind the wheel of a Rally1 car compared to Sesks. Rally Latvia is set to be an extremely interesting event. 

Jari-Matti Latvala will step back into the driver’s seat for Rally Finland. This time taking the wheel of a Yaris Rally2 for his home event. 

Stepping Into The Seat

It doesn’t come as much of a surprise that Jari-Matti Latvala wants to contest Rally Finland once again. As he finished fifth overall at the event last season. However, that came after half of the Rally1 field had some sort of issue. Nevertheless this year Latvala will have a slower yet still great car to drive. As he’s driving the sort of brand-new Yaris Rally2. Which heading into Rally Latvia is three for three on gravel events in the WRC. As Jan Solans took the win in Portugal and Sami Pajari in Sardegna and Poland. Latvala likely won’t be looking for the win. As it’s not a secret that guys like Oliver Solberg are much faster at this point in time. Nevertheless, the journeyman rally driver will look to have a fun time out. 

Why The Rally2 Car? 

The answer to this isn’t really known at this point. However, it was rumoured that Jari-Matti Latvala would once again drive the Rally1 car. What happened to that? Well Sami Pajari’s Rally1 drive being moved changed that. Latvala isn’t a guy who is going to take the opportunity away from somebody like Pajari. He has no reason to. Plus stepping behind the wheel of the Rally2 car may help Latvala assist drivers like Yuki Yamamoto and Hikaru Kogure progress in the cars. 

Who Will Take Over As Team Principal? 

This also hasn’t been confirmed however, I have no doubt in my mind Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda will step in once again for Latvala. As Toyoda has a love for rallying and if he’s free would probably be more than happy to step back into the role for the weekend. 

Toyota Gazoo Racing has revealed they will run a five-car lineup at Rally Finland next month. Find out more below. 

A Five-Car Team

Toyota has run four Yaris Rally1 cars many times before, however, they’ve never run five to this point. That is set to change in Finland when the team is making a huge push at their home-away-from-home event. Toyota is likely looking to take a hold on the manufacturer’s championship lead at the event. As Elfyn Evans, Kalle Rovanperä and Sebastien Ogier will score Manufacturer’s points at the event. Whilst Takamoto Katsuta and Sami Pajari will not. 

What To Expect From The Team

Toyota is sending a roster of drivers to Rally Finland that features three of the fastest drivers in the championship, dare I say two of the three fastest as well. As Kalle Rovanperä and Sebastien Ogier are blistering quick. Rovanperä will also likely be looking to take the win at his home event that he came so close to taking last year. That was before he made an extremely rare mistake that made his car roll and ended his event early. Elfyn Evans will look to defend the win as he won the event last season. Ogier hasn’t contested Rally Finland since his last full season in 2021 where he finished fifth. However, this time around he’ll start a bit further down the lineup. As he’s expected to start the event fourth on the road. Unless a position change happens in Latvia. As far as Pajari, well it’ll be his first event in a Rally1 beast. Meaning there will be relatively low expectations for the young Finnish driver. Unless of course, he manages to stun every like Sesks in Poland. Anything is possible as Pajari is an extremely talented driver. Plus he has loads of experience on Finnish gravel roads, and he’s the reigning WRC2 winner at the event. 

Brandon Semenuk is set to make his WRC debut this month in Latvia. Find out more about the Canadian rally star below.

Making His Debut 

There has been talk for the last couple of seasons about now-two-time American Rally Association Champion Brandon Semenuk making his international rally debut. Semenuk did make that debut back at the legendary Otago Rally earlier this year. However, the Canadian has yet to make his World Rally Championship debut, let alone do a rally in Europe. That will all change come Rally Latvia next month. As Semenuk will make his debut in a Rally2 Yaris. 

What To Expect From Semenuk

Brandon Semenuk has spent the last year in a half dominating the ARA in his top-of-the-line Subaru Rallycar built by Vermont Sportscar. Semenuk won every round of the ARA championship in 2023 and every round this season up until the Oregon Trail Rally when a rock damaged his car and forced him to retire. Brandon Semenuk also took home his first championship back in 2022 after a close battle with the late great Ken Block. Semenuk narrowly beat out the action sports legend, with Block sliding off the road at the final event of the season. 

Overall Semenuk shouldn’t make any huge strides in his first WRC event. As the car, while slower than what he is used to stateside, will still have a learning curve. Add that to a decent amount of quality competition like Oliver Solberg who raced in the ARA some years ago alongside David Higgins. Semenuk may be able to take a handful of top-five stage times in class by the end of the weekend. As he is a quick learner and has shown he is not only a top driver in North America but potentially one of the better drivers in the world. 

Could Semenuk Do More Events? 

Brandon Semenuk works on a really tight schedule most of the time as he also does mountain biking. Balancing mountain biking and rallying hasn’t been an easy task for Semenuk persay, add having to travel to Europe or some other country and spend a decent amount of time preparing for an event and it makes it harder. Not that Semenuk doesn’t already do this stateside. He could potentially do Rally Chile this year or Rally Paraguay next year. If the opportunity arises for Semenuk to drive at either event. 

The 2024 World Rally Championship season is halfway finished. Here’s who I believe has been the best in different ways this season.

Best Driver – Sebastien Ogier

Sebastien Ogier has looked like well Sebastien Ogier so far this season. As the Frenchman has won two events and came close to a third in Sardegna. Ogier would probably be leading the championship if it weren’t for him being a part-time. That still hasn’t discouraged the eight-time champion from putting on his best effort at every event he attends. 

Most Improved – Adrien Fourmaux 

Adrien Fourmaux hands down wins the most improved driver award for the first half of the season. Back-to-back podiums in Sweden and Kenya, plus a third podium in Poland. What more could M-Sport ask of Fourmaux at this point? Fourmaux spent the 2023 season behind the wheel of a Rally2 Fiesta. Where he contested events in WRC2 and the British Rally Championship. He took home the BRC win and had alright results in WRC2. Nobody really expected Fourmaux to do great this season. However, he sits in a battle for fourth in the championship heading into the season’s eighth event. 

Most Disappointing Driver – Ott Tänak

Ott Tänak really hasn’t had a great first half of the season. As the Estonian only has two podiums under his belt. That goes along with his two super rallies. Granted Tänak is still very much in the battle for the WRC championship at this point, but it seems more like a pipe dream at this point. Tänak currently sits third in the championship just 6 points behind Elfyn Evans for second and 21 points behind Thierry Neuville. Overall it’s just been disappointing for Tänak so far this season. 

Best Showing At A Single Event – Mikkelsen In Poland

Rally Poland was a whirlwind of an event. The one shining light from that event has to be Andreas Mikkelsen who was blisteringly fast. Not many drivers can go head-to-head in times with Kalle Rovanperä. Especially in their first event on gravel in a rally1 car. Sure both Mikkelsen and Rovanperä weren’t at 100%. As Rovanperä had to quickly do recce after being called to sub in for Sebastien Ogier just days before the event. Ultimately the two-time WRC champion in Rovanperä came out on top after Mikkelsen suffered a puncture that destroyed the rear half of his car. 

Favourite Event – Rally Italia Sardegna 

It’s normally a hard task to pick a favourite event, but not this season. Even if there are multiple contenders for me. Rally Italia Sardegna wins this category solely because of the absolute nail-biter of a finish. Ott Tänak won the event by just 0.2 seconds over Sebastien Ogier. A feat he achieved on the final stage of the event. All weekend it was a classic battle between Tänak and Ogier. Something we haven’t seen much of in recent years. This finish is also tied for the closest finish in WRC history. The other time it was this close? Well, Sebastien Ogier came out on top that time. Beating out his now boss Jari-Matti Latvala in 2011 at Rally Jordan. 

Least Favourite Event – Rally Poland 

Rally Poland was a good event in most ways. However, the fans absolutely ruined it. The event was completely overshadowed by stage stoppages and cancellations for me to have really enjoyed it. Don’t get me wrong the roads and everything else were good but it’s just disappointing to see an event ruined because of fans who can’t listen to others. Never in my years of following and covering the WRC did I just want an event to end. I dislike saying that, I really do and I feel bad for all the drivers and crews. As well as the fans who actually were doing what they were supposed to. Overall extremely disappointing. 

The fourth and final day of Rally Poland 2024 has come to an end. Kalle Rovanperä held on to take the event win. 

SS16, Gmina Mragowo 1

Ott Tänak kicked off Super Sunday with a stage win. As the Estonian set a time 1.2 seconds faster than Kalle Rovanperä to top the stage. Elfyn Evans was third fastest on the stage, 2.5 seconds slower than Tänak and 1.3 seconds slower than Rovanperä. Adrien Fourmuax finished fourth fastest on the stage, 1.9 seconds slower than Evans. Thierry Neuville rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 8.1 seconds slower than Fourmuax. 

SS17, Mikolajki 2

Ott Tänak also took home the stage win on the seventeenth stage of Rally Poland 2024. With a time 0.7 seconds faster than Adrien Fourmaux. Thierry Neuville finished third fastest on the stage, 0.9 seconds slower than Tänak and 0.2 seconds slower than Fourmuax. Kalle Rovanperä set the fourth fastest time on the stage, 1.2 seconds slower than Neuville. Elfyn Evans rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 0.7 seconds slower than Rovanperä. 

SS18, Gmina Mragowo 2

Kale Rovanperä took his first stage win of the day on SS18. As the event leader set a time 0.6 seconds faster than Ott Tänak to win the stage. Adrien Fourmaux was the next fastest driver on the stage, 1.8 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 1.2 seconds slower than Tänak. Elfyn Evans finished fourth fastest on the stage, 0.7 seconds slower than Fourmaux. Thierry Neuville rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 3.3 seconds slower than Evans. 

SS19, Mikolajki 2

Thierry Neuville took home the stage win on the final stage of Rally Poland 2024. As the Belgian set a time 1.6 seconds faster than Ott Tänak to take the powerstage win. Kalle Rovanperä finished third fastest on the stage, 3.3 seconds slower than Neuville and 1.7 seconds slower than Tänak. Adrien Fourmaux was fourth fastest on the stage, 2.1 seconds slower than Rovanperä. Takamoto Katsuta rounded out the top five on the stage, 0.8 seconds slower than Fourmaux. 

The third day of Rally Poland 2024 has come to a close. Kalle Rovanperä leads the event into the final day. 

SS9, Swietajno 1 

Kalle Rovanperä kicked off the day with a stage win. As the Finnish driver set a time 0.9 seconds faster than Elfyn Evans to claim the stage win. Andreas Mikkelsen was third fastest on the stage, 1.3 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 0.4 seconds slower than Evans. Adrien Fourmuax finished fourth fastest on the stage, 2.2 seconds slower than Mikkelsen. Ott Tänak rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 4.5 seconds slower than Fourmaux. 

SS10, Goldap 1 

Kalle Rovanperä also took home the stage win on SS10 of Rally Poland 2024. With a time 0.3 seconds faster than Elfyn Evans to top the stage. Thierry Neuville was third fastest on the stage, 3.9 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 3.6 seconds slower than Evans. Ott Tänak set the fourth fastest time on the stage, 0.5 seconds slower than Neuville. Andreas Mikkelsen rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 0.7 seconds slower than Tänak. 

SS11, Czarne 1 

Andreas Mikkelsen took his first stage win of the day on SS11. As the Norwegian set a time 1.1 seconds faster than Elfyn Evans to top the stage. Kalle Rovanperä finished third fastest on the stage, 2.4 seconds slower than Mikkelsen and 1.3 seconds slower than Evans. Adrien Fourmuax was fourth fastest on the stage, 0.8 seconds slower than Rovanperä. While Ott Tänak rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 0.9 seconds slower than Fourmaux. 

SS12, Mikolajki Arena 3 

Kalle Rovanperä capped off the morning loop with yet another stage win. The reigning champion set a time 0.1 seconds faster than Thierry Neuville to top the stage. Adrien Fourmaux finished third on the twelfth stage of Rally Poland 2024, with a time 0.1 seconds slower than Neuville. Ott Tänak and Elfyn Evans tied for the fifth fastest time on the stage. With both drivers finishing 0.1 seconds slower than Fourmaux. 

SS13, Swietajno 2

Kalle Rovanperä kicked off the afternoon loop with yet another stage win. Setting a time 0.1 seconds faster than Andreas Mikkelsen to top the stage. Thierry Neuville finished third fastest in the stage, 3.1 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 3 seconds slower than Mikkelsen. Adrien Fourmaux had the fourth fastest time on the stage, 1.3 seconds slower than Neuville. Takamoto Katsuta rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 4.3 seconds slower than Fourmaux. 

SS14, Goldap 2

Kalle Rovanperä also took home the stage win on the fourteenth stage of Rally Poland 2024. With a time 2.2 seconds faster than Thierry Neuville. Andreas Mikkelsen finished third fastest on the stage, 2.4 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 0.2 seconds slower than Neuville. Elfyn Evans set the fourth fastest time on the stage, 1.6 seconds slower than Mikkelsen. Adrien Fourmuax rounded out the top five on the stage, 4.2 seconds slower than Evans. 

SS15, Czarne 2 

Kalle Rovanperä capped off the penultimate day with yet another stage win. Setting a time 2.8 seconds faster than Elfyn Evans to take the event lead into Super Sunday. Andreas Mikkelsen was third fastest on the stage, 4.2 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 1.4 seconds slower than Evans. Thierry Neuville finished fourth fastest on the stage, 2.3 seconds slower than Mikkelsen. Grégoire Munster rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 1.9 seconds slower than Neuville. 

What To Expect From Rally Poland Day Four 

The fourth and final day of Rally Poland will see teams contest 63.06 km across 4 stages. Including the 20.8 km Gmina Mragowo stage. The 10.73 km Mikolajki stage will serve as the Wolf Powerstage. There is no midpoint service or tire fitting zone on the day. Meaning drivers will have to both preserve the car and tires as much as possible on Super Sunday. 

Andreas Mikkelsen leads after the second day of Rally Poland 2024. Find out what occurred on the day below.

SS2, Stanczyki 1

Andreas Mikkelsen kicked off the day with his first stage win of the season. As the Norwegian set a time 0.3 seconds faster than Martins Sesks to take the event lead. Kalle Rovanperä was third fastest on the stage, 7.6 seconds slower than Mikkelsen and 7.3 seconds slower than Sesks. Adrien Fourmaux was next fastest on the stage, 0.3 seconds slower than Rovanperä. Elfyn Evans rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 0.6 seconds slower than Fourmaux.

SS4, Olecko 1 

Andreas Mikkelsen also took the stage win on the second completed stage of the day. With a time 3.1 seconds faster than Grégoire Munster to top the stage. Elfyn Evans finished third fastest on the stage, 4.1 seconds slower than Mikkelsen and 1 second slower than Munster. Martins Sesks set the fourth fastest time on the stage, 1.1 seconds slower than Evans. Kalle Rovanperä rounded out the top five on the fourth stage of Rally Poland 2024, finishing 1.1 seconds slower than Sesks. 

SS5, Stanczyki 2

Kalle Rovanperä topped the first stage of the afternoon loop. As the reigning champion set a time 4.7 seconds faster than Elfyn Evans to take his first stage win of the weekend. Martins Sesks finished third fastest on the stage, 8.1 seconds slower than Rovanperä and 3.4 seconds slower than Evans. Adrien Fourmaux set the fourth fastest time on the stage, 0.2 seconds slower than Sesks. Takamoto Katsuta rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 0.9 seconds slower than Fourmaux. 

SS6, Wieliczki 2 

Thierry Neuville took his first stage win of the Rally Poland 2024 on SS6. With a time 0.2 seconds faster than Elfyn Evans and Takamoto Katsuta to top the stage. Andreas Mikkelsen finished fourth fastest on the stage, 0.4 seconds slower than Neuville and 0.2 seconds slower than Katsuta and Evans. Adrien Fourmaux rounded out the top five on Thea stage, finishing 1.5 seconds slower than Mikkelsen. 

SS8, Mikolajki Arena 2

Kalle Rovanperä and Takamoto Katsuta tied for the stage win on the final stage of Rally Poland 2024 day two. As both drivers set a time 0.3 seconds faster than Andreas Mikkelsen to top the stage. Thierry Neuville finished fourth fastest on the stage, 0.2 seconds slower than Mikkelsen. Elfyn Evans rounded out the top five on the stage, finishing 0.2 seconds slower than Neuville. 

Two Stages Cancelled, One Red Flagged

SS3 and SS7 were cancelled due to spectators being in unsafe positions. Hence the absence of both stages above. SS6 was also red-flagged for a short while for the same reason but was not cancelled. 

Rally Poland 2024 Day Three Rundown 

The third day of Rally Poland will see drivers contest 124.1 km across 7 more stages. Including the 22.4 km Czarne stage. The day will feature two service points, including one 40-minute at the day’s midpoint and one after the day has been completed. Ott Tänak is first on the road, followed by Takamoto Katsuta and Thierry Neuville. Mikkelsen takes a 1.8 second lead over Kalle Rovanperä into the day.